El Niño and SUPERCELL (the novel)

Tornado_Damage_BirminghamLast week I blogged about El Niño and its connection, or lack thereof, to wintry weather in the Deep South.  This week I’ll take a look at El Niño and its influence on severe storms–supercells and tornadoes–in the same region.

There’s a late-winter/early-spring climatological maximum in Dixie of severe storms (before the focus of the turmoil shifts to the Great Plains), so that’s the season I’ll examine. 

Most people will be happy to learn that El Niño-influenced weather patterns have a damping effect on violent storms at that time of year in the South.  That is, there are fewer slam-bang thunderboomers around as compared to, say, a La Niña year.

ROLL OUT THE BERYL(S)?

Tropical storms and hurricanes don’t often threaten the Georgia coast. Just recently, however, pre-season Tropical Storm Alberto did some saber rattling along the Georgia and Carolina shores. Admittedly, it was more of a cardboard saber than a real sword, but at least the action lured The Weather Channel’s Jim Cantore to Charleston.

Now—-and remember, it’s still May and the Atlantic Hurricane season hasn’t even celebrated Opening Day—-the weather models are pretty much unanimous in suggesting yet another tropical or subtropical storm will make an appearance off the Southeast Coast within the next couple of days.

IRENE EYEING NORTH CAROLINA

Things are looking a bit better for Florida and Georgia this afternoon vis-a-vis Hurricane Irene. The same strengthening factors as mentioned in yesterday’s blog remain in play today, while at the same time the models seem to have stabilized their shifting tracks of the past few days.

That means that after Irene blasts through the Bahamas, she’s expected to turn a bit more toward the north and place her laser targeting dot on the Carolinas, most likely extreme eastern North Carolina.