Below is Part IV of my series on extended-range weather forecasting taken from my unpublished manuscript INSIDE THE WEATHER CHANNEL. FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY–Part IV Extended-range Forecasts ADVENTURES IN EXTENDED-RANGE FORECASTING Let’s go back to Super Bowl week 2006. On January 30, I wrote in my weekly outlook narrative: Well, it must be Monday because…

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What a winter!  Enough snow to make Western ski areas envious has blanketed the Mid- Atlantic region.  The U.S. government was shut down–not that anybody noticed–for several days.  And there is undoubtedly more nastiness to come.  It is, after all, only mid-February. So what better time to press on with my series on extended-range weather…

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There are times when general weather trends can be predicted with a relatively high degree of confidence a number of days into the future. But by and large, extended-range forecasting is fraught with peril. Below is part two of my series on longer range weather prediction. Part I appeared on January 11. The material is…

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In a recent blog, I alluded to the pitfalls of extended range weather forecasting. Despite my own admonition never to trust an outlook beyond three days into the future, I stepped out onto a limb and “predicted” a snowfall for Atlanta five days down the road. The snow fell, right on cue, although it wasn’t…

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