tornado forecasting Archives - H.W. “Buzz” Bernard

A ONE IN TWENTY-MILLION CHANCE–The True Story of the First Tornado Forecast–Part III

March 24, 2014 by Buzz Bernard Leave a Comment

PART III

A plaque commemorating the first successful tornado forecast sits in front of a WWII-era B-29 bomber at Tinker AFB, Oklahoma.

After General Borum’s statement that Captain Miller and Major Fawbush were “about to set a precedent,” Fawbush composed the forecast–what would now be called a tornado warning (albeit one with a long lead-time)–Miller typed it up and handed it off to Base Operations for dissemination.

Both men sensed their careers circling the drain. Miller wondered how he’d manage as a civilian. It seemed unlikely anyone would want to employ an idiot who’d issued a tornado forecast for a precise location. Maybe, if he were lucky, he mused, he might catch on as an elevator operator someplace.

Filed Under: Blog, Tornadoes Tagged With: Oklahoma, Oklahoma City, Tinker AFB, tornado forecasting, tornadoes

A ONE IN TWENTY-MILLION CHANCE–The True Story of the First Tornado Forecast–Part II

March 21, 2014 by Buzz Bernard 2 Comments

PART II

Major Ernest J. Fawbush (left) and Captain Robert C. Miller examining weather data ca. 1948. Data those days came in via “high speed” (probably about 60 wpm) teletype.

On the morning of March 25, 1948, based on their hurried research, Captain Miller and Major Fawbush noted a significant similarity between the weather charts for that day and March 20, the date of the Tinker tornado. The two forecasters prepared a hand-drawn prognostic chart (computerized progs were still far in the future in 1948) and reached the “unsettling conclusion that central Oklahoma would be in a primary tornado threat area by late afternoon and early evening.”

Filed Under: Blog, Tornadoes Tagged With: Air Force, Oklahoma City, Tinker AFB, tornado forecasting, tornadoes

A ONE IN TWENTY-MILLION CHANCE–The True Story of the First Tornado Forecast–Part I

March 19, 2014 by Buzz Bernard Leave a Comment

The aftermath of the March 20, 1948, tornado at Tinker AFB, Oklahoma.

In the mid-20th century, tornado forecasting was considered to be beyond the “state of the art,” or in other words, impossible. Twisters were deemed acts of God. And any meteorologist attempting to predict what the Almighty had in mind would have been labeled a fool, a charlatan, or a court jester. Maybe worse.

Yet two young air force weather officers found themselves, through no intent of their own, thrust into the unenviable position of having to make a tornado-no tornado forecast for Tinker AFB, Oklahoma, on a stormy March day 66 years ago.

Filed Under: Blog, Tornadoes Tagged With: Oklahoma, Oklahoma City, Tinker AFB, tornado forecasting, tornadoes